New sales market sees first real setback

Despite a dip in September sales, Canada’s auto market maintains a robust year-to-date growth, driven by strong performances from key brands.

Canada’s automotive market experienced a slight setback in September, with sales of new vehicles dropping 3.6 per cent compared to the same month last year.

This downturn comes after a warning from DesRosiers Automotive Consultants last month about the challenges of sustaining year-over-year gains in the final months of 2024.

Andrew King, managing partner at DesRosier, noted two reasons for the September market decline. One, September 2023 marked the early stages of when vehicle availability improvement was widely seen in the market.

“So it does present a fairly strong comparable,” he noted.

Secondly, the timing of this year’s Labour Day holiday meant there were three fewer selling days in 2024 compared to last year.

These factors combined to create a challenging month for the market, although the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for September remained steady at 1.78 million units, consistent with July and August figures.

Despite the September dip, the year-to-date performance of the market remains impressive, the consultancy noted. By the end of the third quarter, the market had reached 1.41 million units, an 8.1 per cent increase from the first nine months of 2023.

Several brands have shown growth during this period. Volkswagen leads the market in percentage gain among higher volume brands, with a 55.8 per cent increase in 2024. Subaru and Mazda also posted strong performances, up 31.7 per cent and 26 per cent respectively, both surpassing the 50,000 sales mark YTD. General Motors (GM) leads in volume, with sales of 216,000 units, a 9.7 per cent rise from 2023.

However, DesRosiers did point out that the luxury segment is still facing difficulties in 2024, a trend that it plans to dig into.

The streak of increased year-over-year sales ended in June as 2024’s numbers matched 2023, however, it was seen as a blip at the time as outside factors, led by a cybersecurity incident, dampened sales numbers.

As the market moves forward, DesRosiers will closely monitor several key economic indicators, including employment data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and a Bank of Canada interest rate announcement. It further warned that the ongoing strike by American dockworkers strike could impact vehicle production, adding another layer of complexity to the market dynamics.

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